Thought of the Day 08.31.09

Have you ever wondered what percentage of your beliefs might be mistaken? I mean, we all think that every particular belief we hold is correct, but we also know that we must be wrong about a lot of them and just don’t yet know it. Despite being a talk show host and editorialist, I have to honestly say that I suspect something like 50% of my beliefs are wrong. However, there are about 20% of them I know for sure I’m not wrong about.

I bring this up because I think that something like 90-95% of most people’s beliefs are ones they aren’t justified in saying they “know” with any degree of confidence but rather take for granted. So, what makes beliefs not be in this category?

Well, obviously you can put more confidence in ones you have changed during your lifetime because you’ve lived on both sides. Also, beliefs that deal with controversial subjects are slightly more reliable if only because they get social discussion. Thirdly, it’s possible to intentionally explore your belief in any area. All of these strategies help us make fewer blunders in our beliefs.
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1 comment:

Lee said...

Of all the people I have known well, the one furthest Left on the political spectrum was a former coworker of mine. Among her beliefs is that President Bush was involved in planning the 9-11 terrorist attack on the US, and that white people invented HIV to kill prisoners at Riker’s Island.

I recently read that tissue samples from humans who lived in West Africa show that HIV was already infecting people decades before scientists could even come close to thinking about making a virus in a laboratory.

She claimed to know somebody in the explosives business who insists that the collapse of the Trade towers was induced by high explosives. I believe this had been pretty thoroughly debunked.

She believed some Leftist source that said President Bush was going to fly to Argentina on his last day in office, in order to escape trial for war crimes. I resisted the urge to say “I told you so” when that day came and went without presidential flight out of the country.

I try to abide by the saying that “Everything I believe to be true might be false.” Still, I have some core beliefs that I am not going to let go of unless and until a big old bundle of contrary evidence is pointed out to me.

September 1, 2009 at 6:38 PM

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